I love share repurchases. I can show this in two ways: I try to ask two questions on every podcast; the first is “the market is a competitive place; what is the the market missing that makes this a risk-adjusted alpha opportunity,” and the second is “Why isn’t the company buying back shares if their stock is such a bargain?”
Lol, seriously?? You were a permabull on ATUS all throughout 2021
This is from your own article where you claimed ATUS is worth $50 a share!!!!
I stand by everything I said in the first post (as well as the August update and this podcast). To sum up: yes, there are issues, but Altice is simply way too cheap. At current prices (~$22.50), Altice has an EV of ~$35B. They pass ~9.2m homes and LTM EBITDA is ~$4.5B, so you’re paying ~$3.8k/home passed or ~8x LTM EBITDA. Charter, the closest pure play, is trading for ~$4.5k/HP or ~12.5x EBITDA. That’s just too big of a multiple discrepancy, and given Altice is >5x levered any snap back in the multiple will have huge torque on the share price. I’m personally of the view that cable companies are worth >5k/HP or somewhere in the 13-15x EBITDA range; the low end of that range would put Altice’s stock well over $50/share.
$AFI is another good micro cap example. Did a $50M buyback only to land themselves in Chapter 11. Was also trading at a fraction of asset value when they hit the wall. As a distress professional, I learned that question #1 is "does this entity need to exist?" If not, be careful of the value trap.
Lol, seriously?? You were a permabull on ATUS all throughout 2021
This is from your own article where you claimed ATUS is worth $50 a share!!!!
I stand by everything I said in the first post (as well as the August update and this podcast). To sum up: yes, there are issues, but Altice is simply way too cheap. At current prices (~$22.50), Altice has an EV of ~$35B. They pass ~9.2m homes and LTM EBITDA is ~$4.5B, so you’re paying ~$3.8k/home passed or ~8x LTM EBITDA. Charter, the closest pure play, is trading for ~$4.5k/HP or ~12.5x EBITDA. That’s just too big of a multiple discrepancy, and given Altice is >5x levered any snap back in the multiple will have huge torque on the share price. I’m personally of the view that cable companies are worth >5k/HP or somewhere in the 13-15x EBITDA range; the low end of that range would put Altice’s stock well over $50/share.
What is your current position/opinion on ATUS?
$AFI is another good micro cap example. Did a $50M buyback only to land themselves in Chapter 11. Was also trading at a fraction of asset value when they hit the wall. As a distress professional, I learned that question #1 is "does this entity need to exist?" If not, be careful of the value trap.
you're making it big, andrew. you can tell because some rando in the comments of a completely different blog called you a pipqueak. nice. https://diligent-dollar.com/2022/06/09/bed-bath-and-bebond-bbby/
You should look it. Oppenheimer opy they are buying stock back at the fastest rate I've ever seen and usually do it near the bottom